Original-Research: Aves One AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu Aves One AG
Unternehmen: Aves One AG
Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Kursziel: 13.50 EUR
Analyst: Cosmin Filker; Marcel Goldmann
Sale of the loss-making container business, Higher future profitability and better planning ability available, Negative and positive effects balance each other out and therefore we confirm the price target of EUR13.50; Rating: BUY
In an announcement dated 18 March 2021, Aves One AG announced the complete sale of its maritime container portfolio. The company had already gradually withdrawn from this business segment in previous reporting periods by reducing its container portfolio, so that the current step is surprising at this point in time, but should be seen as a consistent implementation of the focus on the rail segment. In the container segment, which is a pure commodity business, there is a downward trend in returns. However, this is offset by comparatively expensive financing at Aves One AG, so that the container segment was loss-making in the past financial years, adjusted for currency effects.
The sale of the container segment, which is expected to be completed in the coming months, will generate a net cash inflow of $23.8 million. In all likelihood, however, this transaction will result in a book loss of EUR33.5 million. As this is to be taken into account in the 2020 financial statements if possible, Aves One AG will thus report a significant decline in the after-tax result. Against the backdrop of the resulting significant reduction in equity, which had amounted to EUR38.14 million as at 30 September 2020, the company is considering measures to strengthen equity. Among other things, the conversion of an existing loan in the amount of around EUR 24 million into a hybrid loan, which will be allocated to equity as at 31 December 2020, should result in a strengthening of the equity base.
With the sale of the container segment, there will be no further exchange rate effects in the future, which in some cases had a considerable impact on the company's earnings picture in the past financial years. In addition, the focus on the rail and swap body segment will increase the reliability of the business development as well as the overall company profitability. This is also against the background of the discontinuation of the high interest rate loans for the container segment, as a result of which the average nominal interest rate is approaching the 3.0 % mark. We therefore rate the sale positively overall.
In the course of the current company announcement, the management of Aves One AG has announced the revenues of the Rail segment for the past financial year 2020. With sales revenues of around EUR 83 million (previous year: EUR 76.13 million), the previous year's figure was exceeded by 9.0 %. The basis for this is the successive expansion of the wagon fleet in recent years, which was increased by a further 12% to more than 11,000 freight wagons in 2020 with investments of EUR90.8 million. For 2021, the Executive Board therefore expects revenues from the rail and swap body business of more than EUR100 million.
With the complete discontinuation of container sales, revenue in 2021 will be below the previous level. EBITDA will also decline, but overall a higher level of profitability can be expected. However, the expected disproportionately strong decline in financial expenses should not take full effect until the coming financial year 2022. According to management discussions, the economic transfer of the container segment will take place on 1 January 2021, but the financial expenses will be allocated to Aves One AG until the actual transfer. Consequently, the 'steady state' of the rail and swap body business will not become visible until 2022.
With unchanged forecasts for 2020, we expect revenues of EUR 119.15 million and unchanged EBITDA of EUR 86.44 million. However, the book loss of EUR 33.5 million is likely to burden the after-tax result, which is expected to be clearly negative at EUR -23.45 million. In 2021, we expect revenues of EUR 104.45 million, in line with the company's guidance. As mentioned, the expected after-tax result of EUR 4.96 million should not yet benefit from the discontinuation of the expensive loans in the container segment, as financial expenses of the container segment are still partially included. This should only be the case in 2022, when we expect a jump in the aftertax result to EUR 11.06 million on forecast revenues of EUR 120.12 million.
The result of our DCF valuation model is a constant target price of EUR13.50 (previously: EUR13.50), which means that the positive and negative effects of this transaction cancel each other out. The lower equity related to the book loss is offset by the higher profitability of the Rail business. We confirm our BUY-Rating.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/22217.pdf
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Date (time) of completion: 23.03.2021 (9:40 am) Date (time) first transmission: 23.03.2021 (11:30 am)
-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------
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