Original-Research: Cenit AG (von GBC AG): Buy

Original-Research: Cenit AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Cenit AG

Unternehmen: Cenit AG
ISIN: DE0005407100

Anlass der Studie: Research Comment
Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 19.75 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2023
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Cosmin Filker, Marcel Goldmann

Q1 2023: Development in line with expectations; forecasts and price target confirmed
 
As expected, CENIT AG achieved a visible jump in sales in the first quarter of 2023 with an increase in sales of 22.7 % to € 43.42 million (PY: € 35.40 million). Inorganic effects contributed particularly to this development. ISR Information Products, which was acquired on 31 May 2022, was not included in the figures for the first quarter of the previous year. We assume an inorganic effect of approximately € 6.0 million in connection with the ISR acquisition. In addition, CENIT AG acquired mip Management Information Partner GmbH (mip for short) as of 30 January 2023, which we estimate to have contributed revenue of approximately € 0.7 million in the first quarter of 2023. In total, we estimate that the M&A-related increase in revenue amounts to approx. € 6.7 million, so that CENIT AG, adjusted for this effect, is likely to have generated sales growth of approx. 3.7 % to around € 36.7 million.
 
Parallel to the strong increase in turnover, the EBIT rose to € 0.01 million (previous year: € -0.39 million). The bottom line for CENIT AG is a slightly negative result after tax of € -0.07 million (previous year: € -0.60 million). In the following quarters, as in previous years, the break-even threshold should be exceeded again. On the positive side, it should be emphasised that CENIT AG has net liquidity of € 2.41 million, even after the acquisition of ISR (purchase price: € 27.88 million). Bank liabilities of € 22.19 million are offset by liquid funds of € 24.60 million. CENIT AG thus has good flexibility with regard to the implementation of the further planned inorganic growth strategy.  
With the publication of the Q1 2023 figures, which were in line with expectations, the CENIT management has confirmed the forecasts for the current fiscal year 2023. The updated guidance now expects consolidated sales in a range of € 175.00 to 180.00 million and an EBIT of around € 9.0 to 9.5 million. In the 2023 annual report, sales revenues of around €180 million and an EBIT of more than €9.5 million were envisaged. According to the CENIT management, the newly formulated guidance is not to be regarded as a forecast adjustment, whereby the upper values of the guidance range are still targeted.
 
Also on a full-year basis in 2023, the expected revenue growth of between 8 % to 11 % is likely to be due in particular to inorganic effects. The first-time full-year inclusion of ISR sales is expected to result in an additional revenue contribution of around €10 million. Furthermore, the additional revenue contribution of the acquired mip should be around € 3.0 million, so that the inorganic effect adds up to a total of € 13.0 million. In our opinion, organic revenue growth of 3.6% should be generated in parallel, so that we continue to expect total revenue of €181.61 million for 2023. In view of the order backlog, which at € 67.03 million (previous year: € 54.37 million) as at 31 March 2023 was 23.3 % above the previous year's value, this assumption is realistic. Based on the unchanged guidance, we also confirm our EBIT forecast, according to which we expect EBIT of €9.80 million for 2023. 
 
The forecasts for the next two financial years 2024 and 2025 also remain unchanged. We continue to be guided here by the 'CENIT 2025' agenda, according to which a sales level of approx. € 300 million and an EBIT margin of 8 % to 10 % are expected by 2025. Our forecasts do not take into account the company acquisitions explicitly expected to achieve these goals, which explains the sales gap between our 2025 estimates and the 'CENIT 2025' agenda.
 
Due to the unchanged input, there are also no changes in the result of the DCF valuation model and we confirm our price target of €19.75. We continue to assign a BUY rating.
 

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/26997.pdf

Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a,6a,7,11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung.htm +++++++++++++++
Date (time) of completion: 12/05/2023 (08:49 am) Date (Time) first distribution: 12/05/2023 (10:30 am)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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