Original-Research: q.beyond AG (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to q.beyond AG

Company Name:	q.beyond AG
ISIN:	DE000A41YDG0
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 5.9
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Philipp Sennewald

Q1 preview: Soft start but case remains intact; Chg.

QBY will release its Q1’26 figures next Monday. Given the still challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical environment weighing on IT spending across the German Mittelstand, we expect a soft quarter with both revenues and EBITDA declining yoy. While this is unsurprising in the context of ongoing demand headwinds and planned investment activity, we continue to view the FY targets as achievable.

Revenue decline driven by Managed Services base effect. Q1 revenues are set to decline 4.5% yoy to € 44.3m (eNuW), primarily driven by the absence of around € 3m in one-time license revenues still booked in Q1/25 prior to the billing model transition. Organically, the MS segment continues to face headwinds from a cautious IT spending environment, with long-duration contract closures remaining delayed and pricing adjustments still required in parts of the portfolio. The Consulting segment should partially offset this, with low single-digit yoy growth expected (eNuW: 2%), supported by continued utilization improvements and a near- and off-shoring ratio now at 20% (vs 3% in FY23), a structural margin tailwind set to continue toward the mid-term target of 30%.

EBITDA step-back reflects investment phase. We estimate Q1 EBITDA of € 1.7m (Q1’25: EUR 2.3m), implying a margin of 3.8%. Gross profit will be burdened by the weaker MS revenue development. Ongoing investments in agentic AI capabilities running ahead of corresponding revenues are seen to be a further temporary margin drag. Additionally, M&A-related legal and advisory costs may have weighed on opex, as management is actively progressing on inorganic growth opportunities. Mind you, we expect at least one acquisition to be announced in FY26 (eNuW), with healthcare and energy as the key target verticals.

Recovery path and investment case intact. Despite the expected Q1 softness, we expect a meaningful improvement through the year, driven by progressive data center capacity monetization, early agentic AI revenue contributions and a continuing improvement in the delivery mix. Management's FY26 guidance of € 182-190m in sales (eNuW: € 183m) and € 10-16m in EBITDA (eNuW: € 11.2m) should remain unchanged, with the lower end representing a macro stress scenario, in our view. With 72% recurring revenues, long contract durations of 3-5 years, a net cash position of € 35m and an undemanding valuation of 5x FY26e EV/EBITDA, underpin the attractiveness of QBY.

The stock hence remains a BUY with a new PT of € 5.90 based on DCF. Stock is removed from our NuWays Alpha List due to the continued short-term headwinds.

You can download the research here: qbeyond-ag-2026-05-06-previewreview-en-c5989
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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